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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."